Aston Villa v Newcastle

The game of the day at Villa Park throws up some great Bet Builder opportunities.

The focus as always will be on Singles and then mixing and matching to find some big price winning Bet Builders.

Player to be Carded

Boubacar Kamara (12/5), Ian Maatsen (11/4), Fabian Schar (3/1), Matty Cash (11/4)

£5 single on each player

Player Shot on Target 1+

Youri Tielemans (13/8), Sandro Tonali (15/8), Fabian Schar (5/2), Dan Burn (4/1), Exri Konsa (5/1), Joelinton (13/10)

£5 single on each player

Other Markets

Over 10.5 Corners (11/10)

Match Shots 29+ (Evens)

£10 single on each

TOTAL STAKES = £70

HALF TIME SUMMARY

Fast and furious in the first half, with the teams level at 1-1

3 of the player bets have obliged so far Schar and Tonali to have shot on target and Schar to be booked, so returns at the half way stage are £51.88.

With 9 first half corners and 18 Match shots we are well on the way to a profitable day.

FULL TIME SUMMARY

No joy on the player bets in the 2nd half (although Tielemans went close), but both the Match shots and the Match corners copped returning an additional £41

So the final score was: STAKES £70, RETURNS £92.88 for a PROFIT of £22.88

When Saturday Comes….

4 Premier League 3pm kick offs today and we are going to try and profit from yellow cards and goal scorers.

YELLOW CARDS

Flynn Downes (2/1), James Garner (7/2), Adam Smith (3/1), Carlos Baleba (13/5)

£5 on each as single. 4 x £1 Trebles and a £1 4 Fold

£25 Staked

GOALSCORER (ANYTIME and 1st)

Jarrod Bowen (11/8 & 9/2), Omar Marmoush (7/5 & 4/1), Jean-Philippe Mateta (13/8 & 5/1), Youane Wissa (2/1 & 13/2)

£5 on each as a single.

£40 Staked

We are in for a total of £65 on the Saturday 3pm kick offs – 12 selections, probably need 4-5 winners to make a profit.

Here we go!

SUMMARY

Not a great first half – nothing in yet and only 1 of the 4 games has seen any goals. Let’s hope the second half brings a bit more action or I am staring down the barrel of a big loss

GOAL: Jarrod Bowen fires the Hammers in front and gives us a return of £39.38.

GOAL: Youane Wissa bags Brentford’s 3rd for a 2/1 anytime goalscorer winner – another £15 in the bag

A disappointing outcome to the 3pm fixtures – Staked £65, Returns £54.38 for a loss of £10.62 – we needed one more winning event.

Never mind, we roll onto the game of the day at Villa Park

Oxford V Leeds

Wins for Burnley and Sheffield United ramps up the pressure on Leeds for the 8pm kick off.

This should be a lively affair as Oxford still need points to secure another campaign in the Championship.

We have a number of selections for the game – and there are plenty of opportunities to mix and match for Bet Builders.

Recommended Bets:

Player shown a card: Firpo (11/4), Vaulks (3/1), Ampadu (7/2), Bennett (4/1) – 5 Units on each

Player Shot on Target: Harris (15/8), Bogle (21/10), Firpo (4/1) – 5 Units on each

Match Cards: Over 3.5 (13/10) – 10 units

Total Corners: Over 10.5 (6/5) – 10 units

A big investment tonight of 55 Units, stay tuned for updates

Summary

Well that was a bit of a car crash.

Leeds got the job done in a scrappy match and now look just about nailed on for promotion

Only 2/9 selections came in, so we sustain a pretty chunky loss. Vaulks with a booking and Over 3.5 Cards were the winning selections

55 Units staked, 37 Units returned for a loss of 18 Units

Sheffield United v Cardiff (2)

BET BUILDER – 18.76/1

3 Units

Shot on Target: Hamer (8/15)

Yellow card: Souza (11/4)

Over 2.5 Goals (8/11)

Over 10.5 Corners (19/20)

Way off with this one! Hamer scored the first goal, but nothing else remotely close.

We take a 3 Unit loss and move on to the Oxford v Leeds match.

Remember, overall on the Sheffield United game we staked 13 Units and returned 27.50 Units, so we have some profit and ammo to attack the next live match

Man Utd v Lyon

It all comes down to this for Man Utd.

A winnable home clash against Lyon to keep their season alive and potentially help supercharge short to medium term plans.

The importance of this game really can’t be understated – recruitment, finances and the whole mood around Old Trafford depend on United getting the job done here.

There have been some signs of improvement in recent weeks, fleeting glimpses of a plan and pattern of play – but this hasn’t really followed through into results (no wins in their last 4 matches and only the home win against Real Sociedad was recorded against a team outside of the bottom 3 of the Premier League since the start of February)

United are currently trading at 1.74 on the Betfair Exchange which implies a 57% chance of winning the match in 90 minutes.

But can they be trusted to deliver when the chips are down?

To be fair to United they have often saved their best performances for the big games (Man City and Liverpool spring to mind) but they have often looked pretty limp and one dimensional at Old Trafford, and I can’t bring myself to back them at Odds On.

Lyon seem very likely to score at least 1 goal (they have scored in 15 consecutive games) so that will be central to the tips tonight, I also want you to bear in mind that there were 13 corners in the first leg and 4 bookings and this has the potential to be a bad tempered affair with everything at stake.

For that reason, I have arrived at the following tips – there will be a lot of them tonight (but don’t be afraid of volume if your wallet allows!)

Player bets will follow when the teams are announced at about 7pm

Recommended Bets:

Both Teams to Score – 6/10 – 10 Units (Return 16 Units)

Over 10.5 Corners – 7/5 – 10 Units (Return 0 Units – disappointing as were 8 first half corners and just 1 in the 2nd half)

Lyon Team Shots (13+) – 13/8 – 10 Units (Return 26.25 Units)

Double Chance – Lyon to Win or Draw – 11/10 – 10 Units (Return 21 Units)

Summary

What an incredible match.

You have to hand it to Man Utd, they were dead and buried, on the verge of humiliation, but they dragged themselves off the canvas like a bloated heavyweight and landed 3 big punches in a stunning finale.

For all of Amorin’s philosophy, they have often looked most dangerous with Harry Maguire up front and no real hint of his 3-4-3 formation.

Anyway onto the bets and we had a profitable night (at last!)

4 bets recommended, 40 Units invested with a return of 63.25 Units and a Profit of 23.25 Units.

Real Madrid v Arsenal

Real Madrid are 5/6 to beat Arsenal in 90 minutes in this Quarter final 2nd leg clash.

That is simply too big and I suspect they will go off at a shorter price at kick off.

I am getting involved now, but will be looking at some more detailed tips later today

Chart above from Betfair Exchange shows the implied % chance that Real Madrid will win in 90 minutes (implied % chance is derived from the Exchange odds – for example if Real Madrid were EVENS their implied % chance of winning would be 50%)

Based on the latest Exchange odds (at 3.30pm UK time) this suggests that Real Madrid have a c.55% chance of beating Arsenal in 90 minutes.

If like me, you think they have a higher % chance of winning, then this could be a value bet

Recommended Bet

Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes – 5/6 (24 Units)

Summary

How bad were Real Madrid! Please don’t say as bad as my tipping….

Static, predictable, out fought and outclassed by the Gunners.

Another losing selection as the terrible start continues. Profits will materialise, I promise!

Aston Villa v PSG

They don’t come much tougher than this. Villa 3-1 down from the first leg, host already crowned French champions PSG with a place in the Champions League Semi Final at stake.

Under the expert tutelage of Unai Emery, Aston Villa have reached new heights and there is arguably nobody better equipped than the shrewd European competition specialist for what lies ahead.

But this is a tie fraught with danger against a PSG team that has developed into possibly the best in Europe. They will be strengthened by the return of their skipper (Marquinhos) who missed the first leg and conveniently had the weekend off to prepare for the second leg.

PSG won the shot count in the home leg by 29-7 and whilst things may be a bit more even at Villa Park, the potent front 3 of Dembele, Doue and Kvaratskhelia will be almost impossible to shackle for 90 minutes (they had 15 attempts between them in Paris).

Villa don’t need to go gung-ho too early, they can’t really win the tie in the first half, but they could easily lose it – so I would expect the game to open up in the second half . I like the look of the Half With Most Goals market (Second Half is Evens)

Without knowing the exact line ups, its difficult to get stuck into any of the player markets, but Matty Cash (booked in the first leg ) is 10/3 to get a yellow card and Achraf Hakimi is 8/5 to have a shot on target (he had 2 SOTs in the first leg and is often on free kick duties)

Recommended Bets:

Half with Most Goals – 2nd Half – EVENS (10 Units) – LOSER (3 x 1st Half goals and 2 x 2nd Half goals)

Yellow Card – Matty Cash – 10/3 (5 Units) – LOSER

Player SOT – Achraf Hakimi – 8/5 (5 Units) – WINNER

Team Shots – PSG 16 or more – 11/10 (10 Units) – LOSER (14 Shots)

(All Bets placed on Betfair Sportsbook. Prices correct at time of bet placement. 1 Unit = £1 so I have £30 invested in the Aston Villa v PSG match)

Summary:

A thriller at Villa Park as PSG squeaked through 5-4 on aggregate. Not so great for the Tips as only 1 of the 4 advised bets came in resulting in a -17 unit loss.