Barcelona v Inter Milan

Barcelona are 4/7 to beat Inter in the first leg of their Champions League Semi Final at the Nou Camp.

I’ve been impressed with Inter this season and would have given them a chance against Barcelona across 2 legs, but their recent wobble (3 consecutive defeats without scoring) worries me.

Maybe they have just had their eyes on this clash and they have been very tight defensively in Serie A away matches (conceded just 14 in 17 away games), but this is a big step up from anything they face domestically.

4/7 is normally a bit short for me to get involved, but I am going to break my rules tonight.

Player to be Carded :

Nicolo Barella (11/4), Denzil Dumfries (3/1), Alessandro Bastoni (7/2), Raphinha (5/1)

£5 singles

Other:

Barcelona Match Result (4/7) – £35 Single

Over 10.5 Corners (5/4), Raphinha to score (17/10) – £10 Singles

SUMMARY:

£75 Staked and could do with a profitable evening. Good luck with your bets!

….and that ladies and gentlemen is why I do not like backing short priced favourites.

Inter Milan deservedly claimed a 3-3 draw with some comedy defending by Barcelona.

This is the first time we have drawn a blank in a game with the tips. Only 9 Corners (at least one obvious corner not given). I thought Raphinha had scored, but it was clearly an own goal and no joy on the yellow cards.

I am on a bad run right now, but there will be some good chances to put things right tomorrow night.

PSG overpriced to outgun Gunners

9/4 for PSG to beat Arsenal in the first leg of the Champions League Semi Final is just too big to ignore.

The French champions have already won at Anfield and can repeat the trick against an Arsenal side who were flattered to beat Real Madrid 3-0 last time out.

Player to be Carded:

MIkel Merino (11/4), Achraf Hakimi (16/5), Myles Lewis-Skelly (7/2), Declan Rice (7/2), Fabian Ruiz (11/2)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target:

Achraf Hakimi (2/1), Nuno Mendes (16/5), William Saliba (5/1), Vitinha (5/4), Martin Odegaard (11/10)

£5 Singles

Other:

PSG to win (9/4), Over 2.5 Goals (10/11), Over 10.5 Corners (11/10), PSG 13+ Match Shots (5/6), PSG 16+ Match Shots (52)

£10 Singles

SUMMARY:

Big Stakes for a big match tonight. £100 invested across 15 Tips – hoping for 7-8 winning tips to return a profit.

Enjoy the game and good luck with your bets….

Poor show on the tips tonight, a bit like Arsenal. Pedestrian is the best word to describe the Gunners, a set piece team.

Just the 2 winning selections and should have been a lot more focused on the PSG win at 9/4

£53.50 returns from £100 staked, gives a big loss of £46.50.

Leeds v Bristol City

A big game for both sides at Elland Road tonight.

I made a mistake doubting Burnley on the weekend, so won’t make the same mistake again with Leeds (the best team in the Championship), but can’t back them at 3/10.

Bristol City have a lot to play for. A win here for City would secure a place in the play offs so should be a lively encounter.

Player to be Carded:

Ross McCrorie (3/1), Junior Firpo (7/2), Ethan Ampadu (4/1), Jason Knight (9/2), Ilia Gruev (9/2), Max Bird (7/1)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target:

George Earthy (7/5), Jayden Bogle (21/10), Junior Firpo (4/1), Ilia Gruev (7/2)

£5 Singles

Other:

Over 10.5 Corners (7/5), 10+ Match Shots on Target (5/4)

£10 Singles

SUMMARY:

£70 Staked. Good luck with your bets!

Very impressive performance from Leeds, much better than a lot of the turgid sideways football served up in the self proclaimed best League in the world.

I was way off with the yellow card bets tonight, but Bogle and Firpo both having a shot on target added to winning selections on Corners (12) and Match Shots on Target (13) ensured another profitable night.

£70 Staked. £87 Returned for a profit of £17 (ROI 24%)

I did have a couple of small losing Bet Builders.

This one the most painful. Firpo had one shot on target, was inches wide with another header and was blatantly pushed in the back when about to head another on target.

Monday Musings…

THE WEEK AHEAD

European football takes centre stage this week as we reach the semi-finals of the 3 major competitions.

Arsenal fly the flag for the PL in the Champions League, they are EVENs to beat PSG in the first leg. PSG (23/10) who lost their first domestic game of the season on Friday despite fielding a first choice XI make some appeal at the prices

Outright favourites Barcelona host Inter Milan at the Nou Camp and are 4/7 to take a first leg advantage to San Siro. Fresh from winning the Copa del Rey on Saturday, Barca will fancy their chances against an Inter team that have hit a mini slump (3 consecutive defeats without scoring a goal)

Thursday night brings the Europa League and Conference League Semi Finals..

Athletic Bilbao (10/11) who host the final will be desperate to be at their own party, but not as desperate as Man Utd (11/4) who need Champions League football to help kick start their massive rebuilding programme.

Spurs (1/5) host Bodo Glimt and will be happy that the first leg is at home. Bodo are strong at home on their artificial surface, so securing a first leg advantage will be vital for Postecoglu’s men.

In the Conference League, Chelsea virtually have a bye into the final, but at least they will face a game in the final with either Real Betis or Fiorentina awaiting them.

With Leeds v Bristol City tonight and Premier League football (Man City v Wolves) on Friday night there is plenty of action to get involved in as we look to keep the profits rolling….

ACROSS EUROPE

Bayern Munich are just one win away from securing the Bundesliga title. Harry Kane will eventually get his hands on some silverware, but is unlikely to be on the pitch after picking up his 5th yellow card of the season.

In Bundesliga II, sleeping giants Hamburg are doing their level best to blow their promotion chances once again (2L and 1D in last 3 matches). Hamburg have had 6 promotion near misses since being relegated for the first time in their history in 2018. The biggest and best supported second tier club in Europe still have their destiny in their own hands, but can they get over the line?

In France Ligue 2, Paris FC are on the brink of promotion to Ligue 1for the first time since 1977-78 season. A quick look at the history of Paris FC and PSG will ensure there will be a couple of lively derby matches next season.

The final word in our European round up must go to Scott McTominay. Another 2 goals for the Scotsman on the weekend in a 2-0 win against Torino. A player deemed not good enough by Man Utd is Napoli’s talisman and might be leading them to Serie A glory. Napoli are 3 points ahead of Inter with just 4 games to play.

Man City can fell Tricky Trees

Wembley has been like a second home for Man City in recent years, and they can enjoy another successful day against Forest in the 2nd FA Cup Semi Final.

Some interesting team news for this one, with no De Bruyne or Foden for City and no Ryan Yates for Forest. I’m expecting a feisty encounter here.

Player to be Carded

Nicolas Dominguez (9/5), Morgan Gibbs-White(11/4), Mateo Kovacic (11/4), Zach Abbot (3/1), Harry Toffolo (16/5), Bernardo Silva (10/3)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target

Jack Grealish (5/6), Bernardo Silva (11/8), Mateo Kovacic (13/10), Nico O’ Reilly (23/10)

£5 Singles

Other

Over 2.5 Goals (4/5), Over 10.5 Corners (Evens)

£10 Singles

SUMMARY

£70 Staked. Good Luck with your bets….

Very poor show from my tips here. Only 2 winning selections from 12 means a big loss on this game and brings the recent good run to an end.

Staked £70, Returns of £30.25 for a loss of £39.75

Bournemouth v Man Utd

United have gone surprisingly strong for this one, but still don’t think they will be able to handle Bournemouth’s intensity.

Player to be carded

Adam Smith (16/5), Alex Scott (11/4), Tyler Adams (11/4), Noussair Mazroui (7/2), Patrick Dorgu (16/5), Casemiro (15/8)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target

Casemiro (13/5), Harry Maguire (7/2), Luke Shaw (13/2), Alex Scott (13/10)

£5 Singles

Other

First Half Over 1.5 goals (7/5), Bournemouth 17+ Match Shots (5/6)

£10 singles

Bournemouth -1 (Already advised, so will be updated in relevant article)

SUMMARY

£70 Staked in total. Good Luck with your bets…

Not a great first half for the advised bets. Tyler Adams has picked up a yellow card (could have been red?). Bournemouth have only managed 5 shots and United have been competitive so far. Fingers crossed for a better 2nd half.

The red card for Evanilson damaged my bets on Bournemouth, but with 3 of the selected players getting a yellow and Harry Maguire getting a header on target we still make profit.

4 winning selections from 12 (33% SR) delivers a profit of £13.25 proving once again you can be wrong more often than right and still make money in this game.

Sunday Standouts and Stats

2 Premier League matches and an FA Cup Semi Final today as we look to continue the momentum from profits generated on Saturday.

Bournemouth v Manchester United

Bournemouth would be favourites against a full strength Man Utd side anyway, but quotes of 4/6 give an indication of how weak the Man Utd side could be today.

With full focus on the Europa League, United will be looking to escape without injuries and without a heavy defeat.

United’s record under Amorim is a disgrace and no amount of excuses should be able to cover up for the lack of impact the Portuguese has made at Old Trafford.

If the bloated executive team at Man Utd had installed Iraola instead of Amorim, would United still be scrambling around in the lower reaches of the PL and lapping up promises of jam tomorrow?

I expect Bournemouth to win this comfortably and will be backing them on the -1 handicap (15/8)

Liverpool v Spurs

Spurs are in the same boat as Man Utd with full focus on the Europa League.

I have more sympathy for Ange Postecoglu, and if he remains in the dug out next season, I would strongly fancy Spurs to finish about Man Utd.

Today’s match is all about Liverpool though. They will deservedly be crowned PL champions (it is not their fault that this has been far from a vintage season from their rivals)

Can’t see myself getting heavily involved in this game as it clashes with the FA Cup semi-final and prices are not that attractive.

Nottingham Forest v Manchester City

Man City have picked up in recent weeks (3 consecutive wins) and should have enough to reach yet another Cup Final.

This will be the main betting event of the day for me, with more tips posted later today, but a staple bet for me when Forest play is to back Ryan Yates to be carded (2/1). Yates has picked up 9 yellow cards so far this season (and should have more)

Recommendations:

Bournemouth (-1) v Man Utd (15/8) – £10 Single

Liverpool v Spurs Under 3.5 goals (19/20) – £10 Single

Notts Forest v Man City – Ryan Yates to be carded (2/1) – £10 Single

SUMMARY

Bit of a blow out this Sunday. Bournemouth suffered after the sending off of Evanilson, Liverpool smashed 5 past Spurs and Ryan Yates was a void bet, giving us a loss of £20 to round off a poor day

Villa can secure place in Final

No time to write a proper preview for this one after a breathless day so far.

Player to be Carded

Munoz (5/2), Kamara (3/1), Wharton (10/3), Cash (7/2)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target

Rogers (10/11), Tielemans (13/5), Guehi (4/1), Konsa (11/2)

£5 Singles

Other

Villa to win in 90 mins (11/10), Over 10.5 corners (11/10), Asensio to score or assist (7/5)

£10 Singles

£70 stakes in total on what is proving a profitable day so far…

Half Time Update:

Kamara yellow carded (3/1) and Konsa with a shot/header on target (11/2) are winning selections so far, giving is a return of £52.50 so far.

FULL TIME SUMMARY

Despite totally mis-reading the result market (congratulations to Palace), we still made a small profit on the advised bets and overall have had a cracking day.

£70 Staked, Returns £73.50 for a profit of £3.50 (we also scooped a 100/1 Bet Builder!)

Luton v Coventry

Very tense affair at Kenilworth Road in the first half.

Luton struggling to break the deadlock against 10 man Coventry.

I really like the look of a yellow card for Coventry keeper Brad Collins (6/1) – he is taking an age on the re-starts and the crowd are starting to get restless.

£5 Single on Brad Collins to be carded (6/1)

WINNER! A nice £30 profit netted.

Saturday Value – 3pm Kick Offs

Match Results

We like the look of the following 7 selections at decent prices. Don’t expect them all to win, but if we can get 3/7 we should make a profit.

The selections are based on current form (Wigan, Gillingham, Carlisle and Barrow), teams with loads to play for (Hull and Plymouth) and I think Sunderland have downed tools until the play offs.

Hull (13/10), Oxford (9/4), Plymouth (7/2), Wigan (9/5), Gillingham (13/8), Barrow (11/10)*, Carlisle (13/10)

£5 Singles on each selection for a total stake of £35

Over 2.5 Goals

Blackburn v Watford (Evens), Burton v Cambridge (21/20), Crawley v Northampton (Evens), Walsall v Accrington (Evens), Cheltenham v Carlisle (4/5), Tranmere v Crewe (11/10)

£5 Singles on each for a total stake of £30

Good luck with your bets!

SUMMARY

We have £65 invested in the 3pm kick offs, and in a decent position in a few of the games.

It’s been a good day so far – hopefully more profits to report at the final whistle..

Match result winners – Oxford (9/4), Plymouth (7/2), Barrow (11/10)* 90 min guarantee

Over 2.5 Goals Winners – Blackburn (Evens), Cheltenham (4/5), Crawley (Evens), Burton (21/20)

£65 Staked, Returns of £88.50 giving a profit of £23.50

Lots to review here, but no time before the Palace v Villa game