Good to see that Betfair Sportsbook have finally introduced their Safe Sub promotion for Premier League games.

The Bookies have been having it all their own way, with ever increasing margins on Bet Builder markets.

Will still no doubt be a lot of near misses, but that added security of getting the substitution on side will add a lot of value and ensure we get a better run for our money

Forest have had a remarkable season, but are now in serious danger of missing out on Champions League qualification.

3 defeats in their last 4 PL matches with their rivals hitting form makes this trip to Selhurst Park a must win, but I just get the feeling that Forest have run out of steam.

It’s quite hard to read what might happen in this game, 2 teams that are better out of possession and who both prefer playing on the break could make for a cagey affair.

Player to be Carded:

Dominguez (12/5), Sangare (11/4), Munoz (11/4), Williams (7/2), Wharton (2/1)

£5 Single

Player Shot on Target:

Gibbs-White (Evens), Elanga (6/5), Guehi (7/2)

£5 singles

Other:

A Red card in the match (13/2) – £5 single

Nottingham Forest 13+ Shots (5/4) – £10 Single

SUMMARY:

£55 Staked across 10 advised selections. Good luck with your bets!

Dominguez booked early, Sangare inexplicably not booked for a cynical foul that is a yellow card 9 times out of 10.

A low key first half ends goalless. Forest have mustered 6 shots in the first half, so a chance they will hit the target of 13+. Only the Dominguez yellow card and an Elanga shot on target in the bag so far, giving a guaranteed minimum return of £28. Need a bit more action in the second half..

Munoz yellow card cops at 11/4 (pays £18.75) and Forest equalise in a much more exciting 2nd half so far.

Forest up to 11 shots after 67 minutes, need just another 2 to hit the target of 13.

Sangare booked (at last), another tip in the bag at 11/4 for another £18.75 and we are in profit!

Williams booked (7/2) for a return of £22.50. With Adam Wharton having been subbed that is the end of the yellow card fun, but with 4/5 of the advised bets coming in, it’s been a good night.

Ryan Yates gets booked, I always back him to get a yellow card when he starts a game, but wasn’t involved after he came off the bench.

A profitable evening, that probably should have been a bit better. A 50% strike rate on the tips returns a profit of £33, but how Forest could only manage one shot in the last 23 minutes (and then 8 minutes injury time) is a bit of a disgrace really.

Back to winning ways though, and with some top class European action to come….

Chelsea can take a big step to Champions League qualification as they host the champions Liverpool.

It’s tough to know what Liverpool will turn up at Stamford Bridge so i’m going to swerve the match odds and just get involved in other markets

Player to be Carded:

Moises Caceido (5/2), Wataru Endo (10/3), Kostas Tsimikas (7/2)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target:

Cody Gakpo (4/5), Enzo Fernandez (11/10), Trent Alexander-Arnold (11/4), Virgil Van Dijk (11/4)

£5 Singles

Others:

Corners Over 10.5 (10/11), Match Shots 30+ (Evens)

£10 Singles

SUMMARY:

£55 Staked. Good luck with your bets!

Just fallen short again today, decent return on the player shot on target tips (3/4 coming in). but no luck on the yellow cards (a continuing trend) and just short on the match shots (28) and corners (9).

Returns of £29.25 for a loss of £25.75

Not much time to get involved in the 2pm kick offs today as I have to go and smash a Toby Carvery.

I’ve been struggling with the Premier League tips recently, so am going to tread carefully today.

West Ham are without a win in 7 but are still odds on to beat Spurs today who will have both eyes focused on their trip to the Arctic Circle. I think West Ham can get the job done today, I don’t like the price but will risk it.

Brentford are also very short to beat Man Utd (4/6), the price seems to bake in a weak Man Utd side, but with a 3-0 advantage in their Europa League Semi Final – I think they will be keen to maintain momentum. United are Evens in the Double Chance market (to win or draw) and there is some appeal at that price

Newcastle have gone 20 games without a draw, but all runs must come to an end. I fancy Brighton and Newcastle to share the spoils here.

Recommended Bets:

West Ham to beat Spurs (5/6)

Man United Double Chance (Evens)

Brighton v Newcastle Draw (15/8)

£10 singles

£30 Staked, just the 1 out of 3 correct tips for a return of £28.75 and a small loss of £1.25

Arsenal have gone with quite a strong side, but will have one eye on their trip to Paris next week.

Player to be Carded:

Tyler Adams (11/4), Lewis Cook (4/1), Ben White (9/2), Thomas Partey (7/2)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target:

Martin Odegaard (Evens), Declan Rice (11/8), Thomas Partey (11/4), Myles Lewis-Skelly (10/3)

£5 Singles

Other:

Over 2.5 goals (3/4), Over 10.5 Corners (19/20), Bournemouth 12+ Match shots (6/4)

£10 Singles

SUMMARY:

£70 Staked. 11 advised bets and a bit of a shocker here to be honest.

£29.38 returned for a loss of £40.62 to round off a losing day

Nothing really standing out in the 3pm kick offs, so am going to take a chance with a few Sky Bet specials

League 1: 35+ Total goals (Evens) – £10 Single

League 1: 39+ Total goals (3/1) – £5 Single

League 1: 129+ Corners (2/1) – £10 Single

League 1: 10 Booking Points for each team in each game (100/1) – £1 Single

League 2: 34+ Total goals (Evens) – £10 Single

League 2: 38+ Total goals (11/4) – £5 Single

League 2: 127+ Corners (21/10) – £10 Single

League 2: Over 1.5 goals in all matches (12/1) – £4 Single

SUMMARY:

Total Stakes: £55 across 8 sections

Goals Galore in League 1 brings home the 35+ and 39+ goals tips.

Still counting up the corners, but we have a guaranteed minimum return of £40.

7 years ago Aston Villa and Fulham met on a sweltering hot day in May in the Championship play off final at Wembley.

Fulham prevailed 1-0. A Ryan Sessegnon through ball was expertly finished by skipper Tom Cairney. Much has happened since then, but it is perhaps telling that both Fulham players could both be involved today. (Marco Asensio who starts for Villa came off the bench in a Champions League final on the same day)

Aston Villa quickly recovered from that Wembley heartbreak and are now looking to qualify for the Champions League for the 2nd season running.

Villa’s home form has been really good this season (they are unbeaten in 16 PL games at Villa Park) and there will be no let up today as anything other than a win could put an end to their Champions League hopes.

Fulham are a difficult team to predict (they have won 7 and lost 7 of their last 14 PL games) and have actually performed pretty well against teams in the top half of the table.

This should be an entertaining game that will hopefully get the weekend off to a profitable start.

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa Match Result (5/6) – £10 Single (Already advised – Stake will be accounted for elsewhere)

Player Shot on Target – Tielemans (11/5), Sessegnon (15/8), Konsa (9/2) – £5 Singles

Player to be Carded: Kamara (13/5), Rogers (16/5), McGinn (11/4), Cash (3/1), Lukic (9/5), Tete (12/5), Bassey (7/2) – £5 Singles

Others: Villa 16+ Match Shots (5/6) Fulham 12+ Match Shots (Evens) – £10 Singles

SUMMARY:

£70 Staked across 12 advised selections…Good luck with your bets

Slightly unlucky with the tips here. Villa won as expected and advised.

3/12 on the advised bets returning £55.50 (a loss of £14.50).

Fulham recorded 11 Match shots and Sessegnon had a shot on target (didn’t count because of a handball) – fine margins between a profit and a loss

Aston Villa v Fulham is the lunchtime Premier League offering in what looks like being an exciting match. There will be a more detailed preview nearer kick off, but I fancy Villa to take the 3 points here at 5/6.

There are also 12 Championship matches scheduled for 12.30pm in the last weekend of the regular season.

The relegation battle involves 5 clubs all trying to avoid the one remaining spot below the relegation line and there is also a fight for a play off spot.

Bristol City host an out of form Preston (no win in 7) knowing that a win will secure their place in the play offs. City have a strong home record and look decent value at 4/5.

I am also going to take a chance on a couple of the Sky Bet specials

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa to beat Fulham (5/6)

Bristol City to beat Preston (4/5)

39+ goals in 12x Championship 12.30pm kick offs (7/2)

134+ Corners in 12x Championship 12.30pm kick offs (2/1)

£10 Singles on each selection

SUMMARY:

Goals galore in the Championship brings home the Sky Bet special of 39+ goals at 7/2

Villa also did the business with a narrow 1-0 win against Fulham.

We fell short on the corners (125 in total) and Bristol City clawed back a 2 goal deficit to draw 2-2 (enough to get them to the play offs)

Congratulations to Leeds, an injury time strike by Manor Solomon secured the title and it’s bye bye to Luton who suffer a second consecutive relegation)

£40 Staked. £63.33 Returned for a profit of £23.33

Onwards to the 3pm kick offs

We have covered off the Athletic Bilbao v Man Utd match already, but there are some big games elsewhere tonight.

Brentford look too big at 2/1 to get a result at Nottingham Forest who may suffer a Wembley hangover.

It’s hard to get involved with Spurs and Chelsea at the prices, but I expect them both to win.

Match Result – Brentford (2/1) Match Odds and BTTS. Spurs (13/10), Real Betis (29/10), Chelsea (9/5)

£10 Singles on each for a total stake of £40

SUMMARY:

Brentford do the business and strike a massive blow to Forest’s Champion League hopes. 2/1 Winner returns £30.

Spurs, Chelsea and Betis all winning but all keeping a clean sheet right now.

Chelsea concede but lead 4-1 so I think I can say that one is in the bag and a £28 return giving a total of £58 returned from £40 staked. If Spurs (3-0) or Betis (2-0) concede we will be in good shape.

In danger of a clean sweep here in the final stages of the 90 minutes. Spurs 3-1 up and Real Betis 2-1 up.

Could be a decent night if things don’t change late on.

Clean sweep on these tips gives an £80 profit (Acca would have paid 75/1), but as it’s rare to get 0 winning tips (which happened last night) it’s also rare to hit 100%.

A good night all in all…..

The Europa League final will take place in Bilbao in just under 3 weeks time (Wednesday 21st May) but will the hosts Athletic Club grace their own party?

Athletic Bilbao are a shade of odds on (10/11) to take a first leg advantage to Old Trafford and they look decent value to pile more misery on Man United.

Currently sitting 4th in La Liga, Bilbao have a formidable home record (1 defeat in 17 League matches this season) and are unbeaten in 10 at San Mames. Champions League qualification is their own hands via their league position, but they are quite rightly dreaming about a European final in their own backyard.

United meanwhile need this desperately. Champions League revenue next season could help turbo charge yet another big summer recruitment drive, and it is clear this is a team in need of major surgery.

There have been glimpses of improvement for United in recent weeks. The remarkable extra time comeback against Lyon will long live in the memory, but their best work has come against 10 men in the last few matches.

United are unbeaten in 12 Europa League matches this season, but this is a big step up in class. They have shown that they can raise their game in important matches, but I think the best they can hope for here is to get out of Bilbao still in with a chance to perform some 2nd leg heroics at Old Trafford.

Match Result: Athletic Bilbao (10/11) – £20 Single

Player bets will follow after 7pm

7pm Update:

Here we go, i’m looking forward to this one and hoping to get over the recent poor run of form for the tips.

Player to be Carded:

Casemiro (15/8), Manuel Ugarte (2/1), Harry Maguire (12/5), Patrick Dorgu (3/1), Yuri Berchiche (13/5), Mikel Jauregizar (4/1)

£5 Singles

Player Shot on Target:

Alex Berenguer (4/5), Casemiro (11/4), Harry Maguire (4/1)

£5 Singles

Others

Over 2.5 Goals (5/4), Over 9.5 Corners (4/5)

£10 Singles

Summary:

£85 Staked across 12 tips. Good luck with your bets.

HT Update: Well that didn’t go as expected! United seem to have their name on the trophy.

4 of the 12 tips are in at HT and we have a minimum return of £68.25

Nothing doing in the second half. The match ended with 9 corners, so one short of a pay out there.

Totally mis-read the match result but still escaped with a loss of £16.75.